今回はThe U.S. and China play a dangerous game というタイトルの社説を取り上げ、
QUESTION1: Why does Trump appear to be alone despite affirmative comprehension by many economists and business professionals of his allegation on China’s unfair trade?
ANSWER: Many economists and business professionals think that Trump should find other ways against China. For example, legally binding throttlehold against China is effective to protect U.S. intellectual property. But Trump talks only imposing tariff is the best way.
QUESTION2: Why China couldn’t or didn’t keep the commitments made earlier between the parties?
ANSWER: China takes Nationalistic Capitalism. China therefore didn’t want to change the way of business concerning with the Communist Party’s consensus.
QUESTION3: What do both countries desire actually?
ANSWER: U.S. wants legal binding changes to Chinese policies to protect the intellectual property of U.S. and allied foreign businesses, to end forced technology transfers along with China’s currency exchange manipulation and subsidies that Beijing provides to domestic businesses. Consequently, China doesn’t want to make any concessions on their principles.
QUESTION4: What are major concerns for Donald Trump and Zhou Jin Ping?
For Trump: The next presidential election and regarding that he wants to improve the U.S.economy under his policy of America First.
For Zhou Jin Ping: He has to hide any sign of weakness of his government.
QUESTION5: This dispute likely to be extended for a long period of time.
Then, what kind of countermeasures should Japan implement to the difficult aspect to hold down the economic risk to the minimum?
Urge Japanese companies based in China to get out of China,
As to the car tariff issue threatened by U.S. the dimension will change in the future because of the concept of MaaS led by TOYOTA,
Letting the Yen fall in value on foreign exchange markets,
The government should invest more on A.I, 5G and Space developments.
Intensify countermeasures to the falling birthrate.
QUESTION: 6 What was the initial cause rooted in breaking out of this trade war?
ANSWER: At the end of 20th century U.S., Japan and the European Union invested to China too much for buying cheap labor power. That gave China an unexpected strong economic power. And this phase still stands still.
During the period of cold war, U.S., Japan and Europe didn’t pay any special attention to China economy since they could satisfy basic labor force within their territories.
This is in a sense revival of cold war with the hegemony between the two major economic powers as seen in the world Caesarism histories.