E-News＆Songs　７月例会活動報告　　　　　　月リーダー　：　宮武捷二

 

7月はジャパンタイムズの記事の「緊張が高まり核兵器保有量が増大するにつれて核リスクが高まる－Nuclear risks mount as tensions rise and arsenals grow」の読了後、各自の日本の安全保障と核兵器保有について自由討論を行い、大要以下のような意見を見ました。

１．戦後７７年が経ち、今、日本は世界で最も危険な核の谷間にあります。ロシアは米国と核の均衡を保ちつつ、小型核の先制使用を公言しています。中国は、米露が中距離核戦力（INF）全廃条約によって手を縛られている間に、中距離核ミサイルの開発・配備を猛然と進めました。さらに、北朝鮮も日本全土を射程に入れる核ミサイルを手にしています。

２．核保有国ロシアの核による威嚇の下で現在進行中の非核保有国のウクライナへの侵略戦争を目の当たりにして日本人の安全保障についての意識の変化も顕在化してきました。

３．日本は半世紀近く続いた冷戦の期間中、欧州ほどの軍事的緊張感をついぞ抱かなかったし経験もしませんでした。また対中国交正常化、ベトナム戦争終結以降は戦略環境が改善し、国内の反核感情もあって、核抑止の議論はなおざりにされてきました。　広島・長崎の悲劇を再び繰り返させないという理想と、米国の核の傘なしには日本の安全保障が成り立たないという現実は、交わることなく長年放置されてきました。

４．現状認識、核拡散防止条約（NPT）、核抑止（力）、相互確証破壊（MAD）、

アメリカの核の傘、非核三原則、核共有（核シェアリング）等の重要な問題点、

自国の安全、独立、自由を守るためには核兵器を保有することが最も有効と考える諸国が存在する事実、憲法改正、国民の愛国心や抵抗心が無ければ国は滅ぶ（ウクライナ国民と指導者）、日米拡大抑止協議、拒否的抑止力として更に防衛力を強化する必要性、タブーなき国防論議と必要装備およびその予算措置等に関する認識を深め早急に対応することが肝要との意見の一致を見ました。

５．以下、各メンバーの意見の大筋を列挙致します。

５－１：
Considering the gravity of the nuclear weapons, I must confess that I
don’t have any idea to cope with. The nuclear weapons are so devastating to every citizen and every country all over the world that it needs serious consideration. I can safely say that “No with nuclear weapons. At the same time No without nuclear weapons”. This is a great dilemma which keeps me
from building any further opinion.

Technically we may be able to arm ourselves with nuclear arsenal and become safer with that. But at the same time we should recognize that the more devastating and the more proliferative the nuclear weapons become, the more dangerous does a whole world be. Peace needs some arms, but by the same token it needs patience.

５－２：
We have considered that the expansion deterrence of the United States under the Japan-US Security Treaty is the most important because there are multiple nuclear weapon states nearby.
We believed that if Japan were attacked by a nuclear power, United States will retaliate it even by using nuclear weapons to protect us.
However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine revealed that the idea is not realistic.
If the United States used nuclear weapons to attack against Russia as a sanction, Russia would also use them in retaliation.
How can we protect our country if such an invasion takes place?
We must protect our country by ourselves without relying on other countries.
Now Japan has to search for the way to tackle this big issue seriously.
As Japan is the only country in the world to have suffered atomic bombs.
We should let the world know the inhumanity of nuclear weapons.
But once they get arm themselves with nuclear weapons, it looks unlikely easy for them to abolish it.
How can we survive in such a world?
It is too difficult to get the answer.
Japanese people haven’t discussed this issue seriously so far.
To talk about this issue has been taboo for a long time.
I think discussions on constitutional amendments and strengthening of military buildups are necessary.

５－３：
1. Long Standing Decision
Japan should have had Intermediate Ballistic Missiles by 2010 to sustain welfare, compassion and peace in our societies. It may be too late.
Japan’s space development technology should be diverted to defense industry.
Constitutional amendment is urgent ahead of sudden national emergency.
Team America & Alliance prefer increase of the number of democracies.
Team “China, Russia and N. Korea” prefer willing to destroy the opposition.

2. History of Nuclear Warhead Technology
U.S. Manhattan Project started in 1942 and completed in 1945.
Japan started to develop atomic bomb in 1941 and completed a centrifugal cylinder for nuclear material enrichment by Riken Kogyo but it was destroyed by GHQ in 1945. So, the project’s incomplete.
Japan knows how to make atomic bombs, hydrogen & even thermal nuclear reactive bombs. Uranium can be imported from Australia and Canada and process Uran-235 and Plutonium 239 by ourselves.
It may take a couple of years to complete a prototype and another year for own digital VR Nuclear Test. That’s why I lamented it should have been implemented by year 2010 in order to strengthen self-defense forces to retain our peaceful societies and territories.

3. Damage Forecast（核戦争犠牲者予測）
Mutual Assured Destruction相互確証破壊の場合：
Should Japan be armed with Nuclear Warheads as I claim, our damage from nuclear missiles flown from China, Russia and/or North Korea may reach to almost total casualty across the main cities.　Vice-versa for the opponent country by U.S.-Japan alliance force.
When fighting with non-nuclear weapons and conventional weapons
非核・通常兵器で応戦の場合：
Number of casualties in main cities will be sharply dropped as seen in Ukraine now though houses and buildings will be completely destructed.

4. The point is,
Should our nuclear deterrence against potential enemy countries work well, above-total casualty can be suppressed.

５－４：
1. Understanding of Present situation
If we expect ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia, it means both must win the war. It means they fight until either side loses the war. It may mean Russia will win the war if viewed from military power with conditions as follows. EU and U.S. might accept ceasefire at the line excluding eastern part of Ukraine territory under the condition that the area invaded by Russia (eastern part of Ukraine territory) is to be controlled by United States, EU, and Russia and China. EU and U.S. continue economic sanction and Russia continue prohibition of export of energy. That means continuation of present status and ceasefire. Russia announced it is ready to use nuclear weapons in near future. Ukraine is invaded by Putin, the dictator of Russia. Japan is surrounded by China, Russia and North Korea.

2.  Japan’s future (but near f.) vision for nuclear armament in one word
Japan should be prepared to hold U.S, shared nuclear weapons and or to hold Japan made ones and be ready to fight against any invasion by nuclear power from the would-be enemies. It can be realized by change of Japan U.S. Security Treaty. Nuclear deterrence is inevitable if we see the case of Ukraine. Japan is in the same situation with Ukraine at our northern four islands. It is possible that Russia may insist to invade Hokkaido in the future if Ukraine is defeated. It is so with China and with North Korea since they know Japan is not ready to fight with nuclear weapons.
It is inevitable to change the constitution any way as soon as possible.

3.  Japan’s possible picture in the future
At present more than two thirds of the Diet members are ready to accept change of the constitution but they do not unanimously agree on the Article 9 of the constitution. One party is still sticking to the Article 9. The present LDP’s draft includes many questions regarding not only the Article 9 but basic stance of the constitution. It may take long time and may lose our territory if we cannot change the constitution. What it means is:
Japan had been destroyed completely in 1945 because Japan could not decide ceasefire. Same will occur. Japanese will not think what if. We are not trained to make actions for sudden accident as Abe’s assassination case.
People think it is unlikely that such accident occurs. Russia, China, North Korea will attack Japan. We have no nuclear shelter at all, for example. European countries already installed shelters to save at present more than 50% of their people while Japan only 24000.

4. My opinion on the present situation of the world peace and Ukraine War and on Japan’s positioning (summary)

1. The war will finish. Ukraine will be defeated but …
2. The eastern part of the Ukraine territory is under control of
U.S. E.U., and Russia and China
3. It is necessary for Japan to hold nuclear weapon because
Russia, China, North Korea will attack Japan.
4. It may be recommended to introduce nuclear sharing with U.S.
under U.S. Japanese Security Treaty or directly hold nuclear
weapon.
5. It is inevitable to change the constitution any way as soon as
possible.

５－５：
Viewing the ongoing warfare in Ukraine broke by Russian invasion, to which we need pay special attention to the responses taken by Ukraine people from the top to the common. They clearly shown their firm solid united “WILL” as a citizen of Ukraine to protect their mother country. This is the most basic/essential element to protect our own country, and without this “WILL” no survival of the country could be expectable. Heaven helps those who help themselves.

５－６：
Many opinions from various angles have expressed through this meeting and would like to repeat once again that the Japanese Constitution should be revised immediately, and now it’s ripe time to do so, which also could be the realization of the “will” of the ex‐premiere Mr. Abe. Otherwise Japan may cease to exist. These are my most concern and anxious matters in these days.

５－７：
China is the big neighboring nuclear armed country for Japan. We are unable to change this geographical (geopolitical) position. So we have to associate with China wisely in good relation hopefully. China is the biggest market for Japan and China is also unable to neglect Japan as a big trade partner as well. Currently China is the No.1 country for Japan for her international in/out trade volume which is more than U.S.
However, her behavior since Xi Jinping became President of the country, has changed the status-quo to worse phase with its militaristic threats and unfair external economic policy. We need the wisdom how to deal with China, not too much lean forward, not short term profit oriented expansion to China market etc. We would like to request Japanese leaders in economic field and particularly political leaders (Lawmakers) display clear signs what the real national interests are.

 

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